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Risk Analysis
Method
In order to determine the most effective standby vessel sharing
arrangements, the concept of a sharing circle was introduced.
A sharing circle is a circle of a given diameter that can be drawn
anywhere on the map of an offshore field all installations
circumscribed by the sharing circle can by definition be supported
by a single standby vessel.
A wide range of sharing circle diameters was analysed. At each
diameter, the risks to personnel were evaluated against the Operators
proposed 1995 workscope. This workscope encompassed all the maintenance,
inspection, construction and drilling work programmes. In order
to determine the risks and costs for each sharing arrangement sophisticated
computer simulations, using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, were
developed.
The risk analysis was based on careful review of the Safety Cases
that had been produced by the Operator under UK safety legislation.
Event tree analyses were performed to quantify the statistical numbers
of persons likely to be in need of rescue from the water in various
emergency scenarios. Other analyses investigated rescue times and
survival probabilities for each of the standby vessel deployment
options. These analyses also investigated the merits of different
types of protective clothing and the use of Personal Locator Beacons
(PLB's) that if worn by those members of the offshore workforce
considered to be exposed to greater risks e.g. overside working,
would quickly identify their location in an emergency.
The investigation also investigated the role of a platform-based
radar early warning system as a precaution against ship collision.
Results
Survival Probability
A Monte Carlo simulation was carried to explore the sensitivity
of survival probability to:
- type of clothing offshore work vest, helicopter transit
suit or high insulation suit;
- winter versus summer conditions;
- standby vessel operating distance;
- type of rescue craft deployed.
The results of the simulation indicated:
- Work vests do not provide adequate protection in the North Sea
under either winter or summer conditionsa helicopter transit
suit or better greatly increases the survival probability.
- The use of PLB's and daughter craft significantly improves survival
probability.
- With daughter craft, PLB's and transit suits, survival probabilities
are close to 100% for standby vessel operating distances of up
to 10 nautical miles from the protected installation even in winter
conditions.
Rescue Times
Rescue times were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation techniques
for a single person in the water, for a ditched helicopter, and
for an abandoned platform, with a standby vessel at various initial
distances away. The simulations were carried out both for conventional,
relatively small, open fast rescue craft and for the new, larger,
enclosed daughter craft.
The simulation technique yielded a probability distribution for
the time to rescue.
The speeds of the fast rescue craft, daughter craft and standby
vessel were calculated as functions of significant wave height.
These speed relationships were based on performance information
from the Royal Netherlands Lifesaving Institute, boat builders and
other operators.
The arrival time of the daughter craft at the installation was
calculated as a function of:
- mother vessel speed;
- time to launch the daughter craft;
- daughter craft speed;
- distance to survivors.
A similar analysis was performed for rescue by fast rescue craft.
It was recognised that the speed of the fast rescue craft falls
off more rapidly with increasing wave height than it does for the
daughter craft. The time to recover the fast rescue craft onto the
SBV was also included. The daughter craft, being enclosed, do not
necessarily have to be recovered onto the mother vessel for the
rescued personnel to be considered safe. In the most extreme weather
conditions, when recovery to the mother vessel is unsafe, enclosed
daughter craft may make their own way back to shore with the survivors
safely inside.
The following conclusions were drawn from the rescue simulations:
- Conventional standby vessels with open fast rescue craft operating
at a distance of 5 nautical miles from the manned installation
are capable of rescuing a single person within 30 minutes with
50% probability. The upper bound rescue time (90% probability)
is 72 minutes. The upper bound reflects the difficulties in locating
a person in heavy seas and conditions of strong current and wind
drift.
- The introduction of PLB's would convert a search and rescue
operation into one of rescue alone. This would reduce rescue times
especially in heavy seas and conditions of strong current and
wind drift and make rescue times a less variable quantity.
- With the introduction of PLB's a standby vessel equipped with
a daughter craft was calculated to be capable of rescuing a single
person within 30 minutes with a 50% probability when operating
at a range of 10 nautical miles.
The advantages of using totally enclosed daughter craft of around
30-40 ft length are summarised as follows:
- The hull geometry and dimensions allow them to operate at higher
speeds in stormy seas than the smaller conventional fast rescue
crafts.
- Enclosed and heated accommodation with sufficient area for stretcher
cases greatly enhances ability to administer immediate warmth
and protection from hypothermia.
- Motion compensated davit systems allow enhanced safety whilst
launching and recovering daughter craft.
Top
Performance Standards
Performance standards for rescue time (performance times)
were developed on the basis of the risk analysis work and consultation
with the offshore production crews. Specifying rescue time rather
than stand-off distance proved a great step forward as it opened
up the possibility of using higher performance craft at greater
ranges, thus combining greater economy with improved safety. The
existing convention that standby vessels could be deployed up to
5 nautical miles away regardless of performance was
considered to be inhibiting innovation.
The Monte Carlo simulation showed that the use of mother/daughter
craft and PLB's would allow standby vessel deployment distances
to be doubled while maintaining or improving rescue performance.
Through detailed discussions with the offshore workforce, the following
Performance Standards were established:
Overside Working
When personnel are working over the side, a daughter craft,
fast rescue craft or standby vessel is to be positioned such that
no person entering the water will be immersed for longer than 10
minutes.
Helicopter Landing and Take Off
For helicopter landings and take-off, a daughter craft, fast
rescue craft or standby vessel is to be positioned so as to be less
than 20 minutes from the incident.
Normal Operational Support
For manned installations when no helicopter activities are
occurring, a craft of sufficient capacity (daughter craft, fast
rescue craft or standby vessel according to the size of installation)
is to be capable of arriving at the scene and rescuing the first
person within 30 minutes.
Use of Personal Locator Beacons
PLB's are to be worn by personnel undertaking overside working
activities, flying in helicopters or working on not normally manned
installations.
Discussions with Workforce
Presentations of the proposed changes were made during 1994 and
1995 to the Operators Offshore Installation Managers, Safety
Representatives and work force. Feedback was reviewed and appropriate
actions taken.
During 1995, a series of presentations and meetings were held with
the UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Man-over-board trials
were held off the coast of Scotland and witnessed by the HSE. These
demonstrated the potential of the Personal Locator Beacons and
the associated direction finding systems. A video was made of these
trials and shown to the offshore workforce to help in their understanding
of the proposed changes. In late 1995, the HSE stated that they
had no objection to implementation of the proposed arrangements
but they would exercise their right to audit actual operations.
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